Agricultre
Agriculture
Agriculture is the most important sector of Bangladesh economy due to its role in food security, employment and livelihood. Still more than 70% of the people in Bangladesh are directly or indirectly employed in this sector. The Bangladesh economy is transforming towards commercial agriculture with expansion of service sector. The agriculture of Bangladesh is dominated by crops which accounts about half of total agricultural GDP. Rice dominates Bangladesh agriculture covering more than 80% of the land area.
Agriculture is not only affected by climate change, but also likely to bear the main brunt of output losses. If the predictions are right, the worst is yet to come. By 2100, climate change could impose costs on the Bangladesh economy that could be significantly higher than the estimated global average loss.
The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) as well as BDP2100 provides an overall view of the links between climate, agriculture and livelihoods. The major challenges related to agriculture and food security in Bangladesh are:
- Curse of poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition
- Degradation of natural recourses
- Low agricultural productivity and limited modernization
- Weak research extension linkage and technology delivery
- High post-harvest losses
- Problems of market linkages and value chains,
- Scarcity of availability of agriculture labour
- Farm mechanization
- Food quality and safety problem
- Inadequate institutional credit
- Inadequate availability of quality seeds to the farmers
- Increased environmental shocks and livelihood risk
Opportunities for Agriculture Sectors
| Type | FY1972-80 | FY1981-90 | FY1991-00 | FY2001-10 | FY2011-15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture and Forestry | 2.43 | 2.58 | 2.08 | 3.69 | 2.73 |
| Crops and horticulture | 2.51 | 2.69 | 1.83 | 3.34 | 2.25 |
| Livestock | 2.23 | 2.10 | 2.51 | 4.52 | 2.79 |
| Fiesheries | -2.87 | 2.35> | 8.21 | 2.72 | 6.19 |
Challanges in Agriculture Sectors
All the successes, described above, could be short lived over a longer period of time. After achieving lower middle income country status, the challenge is not achieving food security but to sustain food security over medium and long term. Bangladesh aspires to become an upper middle income country and then on to become a developed country by 2041. This time frame unfortunately also coincides with onset of sea level rise potentially inundating parts of Bangladesh. Can Bangladesh sustain food security at that time? If not, will that threaten its aspiration to become developed country? The main challenges to achieving and sustaining food security over the longer term include:
- Urbanization
- Sea Level Rise
- Loss of agriculture land
- water availability
Expanding urbanization threatens food security
Bangladesh experienced faster urbanization than South Asia as a whole between 2000 and 2010. Over that period, the share of its population living in officially classified urban settlements increased by 1.69% per year. World Urbanization Prospects estimated that urban population will be 56% of total population of Bangladesh by 2050. Bangladesh's expanding urban populations presents it with a considerable affordable housing challenge. In the best case scenario in which urban population density remains constant, meeting this challenge will require expanding the amount of developable urban land by just over 7,000 km2 or almost 45% - between 2010 and 2050 (World Bank, 2015). This will provide extreme stress on lands available for productive economic uses and threaten achieving food security.
Climate change and natural hazards will likely continue to worsen
Bangladesh ranks first in the 2014 Climate Change Vulnerability Index and it will likely suffer more from climate change by 2025. than any other country (Maplecroft, 2014). Rainfall is expected to increase by 10% to 15% during the monsoon seasons by 2030 and 27% by 2075; rising sea level is expected to inundate 120,000 km2 by 2050; 14% more of the country may become extremely prone to floods by 2030; cyclones in the Bay of Bengal will occur more frequently due to increasing temperature, and the peak intensity of cyclones may increase by 5% to 10% (FPMU, 2013). Coastal salinity problems will likely worsen as changing rain patterns reduce the amount of dry season water supply from upstream river sources. Overall, crop production might be reduced by 30% by the end of the century, rice production could fall by 8%, and wheat production by 32% by 2050 (FPMU, 2013). Winter crop production would be seriously hampered due to a warmer and drier environment during non-monsoon seasons, while moisture stress might force farmers to reduce the area under irrigated rice cultivation.
Loss of agricultural land
Bangladesh is losing agriculture land at a rate of 0.5% per year due to various factors including urban encroachment of agriculture land, road infrastructure, water logging, depletion of groundwater and soil fertility, erosion, and salinity (Hasan, 2013). In the last three decades about 170,000 ha of agriculture land has been degraded by increased salinity (FAO, 2012). Soil fertility degradation results from imbalanced fertilizer use ( overuse of subsidized nitrogen fertilizers), absence of micronutrient application, less use of manure for crops and more for fuel, and cropping intensification combined with the increase of mono culture rice without rotation. River bank erosion accounts for about 40% of land loss on about 1,200 km of riverbanks (primarily the Ganges, Jamuna, and Padma Rivers) that are seriously affected as topsoil is washed away and replaced by sand (Hasan, 2013). This problem is expected to intensify with increased climate change-induced sea level rise. This significant land loss when combined with population growth explains why the size of cultivated area per farm has decreased from 0.81 to 0.51 ha between 1984 and 2008 (FPMU, 2013)..
Uncertainty in water availability from upstream
As Bangladesh is located in the low-lying delta of the Ganges- the Brahmaputra- the Meghna basin, upstream infrastructural developments both in India and possibly in China are expected to have a notable impact on the dry season flow in the country. Of particular interest for Bangladesh are the Indian proposals to construct 16 barrages on the Ganges River and the plans to divert water from the Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers towards the south of India. In addition, India is planning to construct the Tipaimukh dam in the northeastern part of the country. These will impact the water availability in Bangladesh as well as the ecological condition of the rivers. Fisheries and agriculture activities within Bangladesh are expected to be impacted by these developments.
Preferred & Available Stress Tolerant Varities
The following stress tolerant crop varities are developed by different agencies of Bangladesh and can be used to combat climate change.
Drought Tolerant
BRRI dhan43, BRRI dhan 55, BRRI dhan 56, BRRI dhan 57, BRRI dhan 66, BRRI dhan 71, & BRRI dhan 83, for drought region. Binadhan 20, BINA Moog 11.
Flood Tolerant
BRRI dhan 51, BRRI dhan 52, BRRI dhan 79, (can withstand 18-21 days of submergence); BINA dhan 11, BINA dhan 12, (20-25 days submerged tolerant), BRRI dhan 91, (medium low and where water level below 1 meter).
Saline Tolerant
BR23, BRRI dhan 41, BRRI dhan 54, BRRI dhan 73, BRRI dhan 78, BINA dhan 8, BINA dhan 10, (12 ds/m), BINA dhan 23 , varities, BARI Gom 25, BRRI dhan 97, BRRI dhan 47, BRRI dhan 99, (8-14 dS/m), BU Soybean 2, BARI Soybean 4, BARI Mung 6, BINA dhan 23, BINA Gom 1, Binachinabadam 6.
Diseases Tolerant
BINA dhan-25,(moderate YSB resistant); BRRI dhan 101,(Bacterial Leaf Blight resistant), Binamoog-7, Binamoog-8, Binamoog-9, Binamoog-10, Binamoog-11, (Yellow Mosaic Virus and Cercospora Leaf Spot Resistant); BARI Mung-4, BARI Mung-6, BARI Gom 30, BARI Gom 33,
Bio Fortified
Zinc enrichged crop varities: BRRI dhan 62, BRRI dhan 64, BRRI dhan 72, BRRI dhan 74, BRRI dhan 84, BRRI dhan 102, Bangabandhu dhan 100, BINA dhan-20,
Other Stress Tolerant
Stress tolerant other corp varities: BARI Gom 30, BARI Gom 31, (heat tolerant, leaf blight tolerant and rust-resistant); Binamoog-11, (drought and high temperature tolerant) .
Highlited Approach
In Ohirkunji village, Barlekha Upazila, Moulvibazar, Kunjolota Biswas, age 38, has become a successful farmer using the unique (sack gardens) method. This method can produce sufficient vegetables for herself, selling the rest for nominal profit. People living in the haor regions are compelled to receive a potential strategy such as sack farming to promote their living standards as the intensity of excessive rainfall causing flood has increased over the years, and climate-induced disaster has already impacted the livelihoods of the local community
Sack Garden
Networking Lead
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Stepha Kruse
Design Lead
Potential Impact and Adaptation Option
For Agriculture Sector
- Potential Impact & Risk
- Adaptation Intervention
- Adaptation Measures
| Climate Signal and Hazards | Potential Impacts | Risk Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SSP1-2.6 | SSP5-8.5 | ||
| Excessive Rainfall |
|
++ | +++ |
| Extreme Heat |
|
++ | +++ |
| Cold spell |
|
+++ | +++ |
| Frequent River Flood |
|
+ | ++ |
| Early or Frequent Flash Floods |
|
++ | +++ |
| Severe Drought/Water Scarcity |
|
++ | ++ |
| Frequent Lightening |
|
++ | ++ |
| Salinity Increase |
|
++ | +++ |
| Frequent Cyclone and Storm Surge |
|
+++ | +++ |
| Sea Level Rise |
|
++ | +++ |
| Code | Interventions | Domain | NAP Strategy | Priority | Cost (Billion BDT) | Private Sector Investment Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSA1 | Extension of climate smart technologies for increasing irrigation water use efficiency | SWM | SEE | CHT | FPE | HFF | DBA | CBL | NNW | CHI | URB | | S1.1, S1.2, S1.3, S2.1, S2.2, S2.3 | High | 313 | 10% |
| CSA2 | Augmentation of surface water for multipurpose use and irrigation | SWM | SEE | CHT | FPE | HFF | DBA | CBL | NNW | CHI | URB | | S2.1, S2.2, S2.4, S1.1, S1.2, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2 | High | 313 | 10% |
| CSA3 | Extension of stress, pest and diseases tolerant rice and non-rice cropst | SWM | SEE | CHT | FPE | HFF | DBA | CBL | NNW | CHI | | S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2 | High | 846 | 5% |
| CSA4 | Introduction and up-scaling of innovative and indigenous agriculture | SWM | SEE | CHT | FPE | HFF | DBA | CBL | NNW | CHI | URB | | S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2 | High | 20 | 5% |
| CSA5 | Crop diversification/intensification for natural resources optimization and reducing stresses of existing and potential climate stress based on climate sensitive crop zoning | SWM | SEE | CHT | FPE | HFF | DBA | CBL | NNW | CHI | URB | | S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4. | Moderate | 15 | 20% |
| CSA6 | Farm modernization/ mechanization to reduce climate vulnerability | SWM | SEE | CHT | FPE | HFF | DBA | CBL | NNW | CHI | | S2.1, S2.3, S2.4, S1.3 | Moderate | 15 | 5% |
| CSA7 | Increase fertilizer use efficiency for enhancing the production (fertilizer deep placement, organic amendment, green manuring, leaf color charts, soil test-based fertilizer application) | SWM | SEE | CHT | FPE | HFF | DBA | CBL | NNW | CHI | | S2.1, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2 | High | 106 | 40% |
| CSA8 | Extension of Good Agriculture Practices (GAP), Modern Agriculture Technology (MATH) and Sloping Agricultural Land Technology (SALT) | SWM | SEE | CHT | FPE | HFF | DBA | CBL | NNW | CHI | | S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2, S4.3 | High | 103 | 10% |
| CSA9 | Strengthening and development of impact based Early Warning System and Data Management for Agriculture | Nationwide | S2.1, S2.2, S2.3, S1.3 | High | 25 | 5% |
| CSA10 | Improvement of storage or post-harvest facilities, transport, communication and e-commerce based market facilities for agricultural product | Nationwide | S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2 | High | 145 | 20% |
| CSA11 | Development of agro-food processing industries based on climate-sensitive crop zoning | Nationwide | S2.3, S1.3 | High | 52 | 40% |
| CSA12 | Development of e-commerce and engagement of gender and youth for e-commerce based entrepreneurship | Nationwide | S2.1, S2.3, S1.3, S4.2 | Moderate | 11 | 20% |
| WDM1: Management and timely maintenance of inside and outside of coastal polders, sea dykes, embankments and cyclone shelters in an integrated and gender sensitive way considering the sea level rise and extreme storm surge height |
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