CCIKM

Agriculture

Agriculture is the most important sector of Bangladesh economy due to its role in food security, employment and livelihood. Still more than 70% of the people in Bangladesh are directly or indirectly employed in this sector. The Bangladesh economy is transforming towards commercial agriculture with expansion of service sector. The agriculture of Bangladesh is dominated by crops which accounts about half of total agricultural GDP. Rice dominates Bangladesh agriculture covering more than 80% of the land area.

Agriculture is not only affected by climate change, but also likely to bear the main brunt of output losses. If the predictions are right, the worst is yet to come. By 2100, climate change could impose costs on the Bangladesh economy that could be significantly higher than the estimated global average loss.

The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) as well as BDP2100 provides an overall view of the links between climate, agriculture and livelihoods. The major challenges related to agriculture and food security in Bangladesh are:

Curse of poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition
Degradation of natural recourses
Low agricultural productivity and limited modernization
Weak research extension linkage and technology delivery
High post-harvest losses
Problems of market linkages and value chains,

Scarcity of availability of agriculture labour
Farm mechanization
Food quality and safety problem
Inadequate institutional credit
Inadequate availability of quality seeds to the farmers
Increased environmental shocks and livelihood risk

Opportunities for Agriculture Sectors

The agriculture sector has contributed considerably to the development of Bangladesh. By, 2000 the national poverty rate had fallen to 49% and rural poverty had come down to 52%, down from the 80% level in the early 1970s. Subsequent progress in agriculture and strengthening of economic transformation during 2000-2015 period saw national and rural poverty decline further to 24% and 30% respectively by 2015- source- BDP2100.

Table: Growth Performance of Agriculture and Sub-sectors, FY1972-15 (%/Year)

Type	FY1972-80	FY1981-90	FY1991-00	FY2001-10	FY2011-15
Agriculture and Forestry	2.43	2.58	2.08	3.69	2.73
Crops and horticulture	2.51	2.69	1.83	3.34	2.25
Livestock	2.23	2.10	2.51	4.52	2.79
Fiesheries	-2.87	2.35>	8.21	2.72	6.19

Non-crop agriculture (livestock, fisheries and forestry) have gained substantial ground and now plays a significant role in terms of employment generation and contribution to GDP. Although livestock accounts for 10% of agricultural GDP (less than 2% of total GDP), it is very labor intensive. Livestock sub-sector contributes output for both production and consumption. However there exists a gap between the demand for livestock products and their current levels of production. This gap is expected to widen further due to increase in per capita income and change in food consumption pattern. This is a missed opportunity that needs major policy attention

Livestock contributed over 14.2% to agriculture GDP in FY2016 (DLS 2016). Numbers of buffalo, sheep, poultry have increased at a rate of 25-30% over the last decade (BDP2100)). Cattle and goats are the most important livestock holdings. Cattle are a typical part of a traditional cropping system as a source of power, transport, and manure, as are buffalo, which are fewer in numbers.

Table: National Livestock Production (in 000s)

Species	2006-07	2012-13	2013-14	2015-16	% of Change
Buffalo	1,210	1,450	1,457	1,471	22
Cattle	22,870	23,341	23,488	23,785	4
Goats	20,750	25,277	25,439	25,766	24
Poultry	245,970	296,264	304,172	320,633	31
Sheep	2,680	3,143	3,206	3,355	24

A major breakthrough that has happened in post-independence Bangladesh is the growing importance of fisheries. Its share in agricultural production climbed up from less than 9% in the 1970s to 23% in FY2014. As a result, fisheries sector now contributes to 4.4% of total GDP and employs about 13% of rural labor force. There has been a major transformation in the fisheries sector. The small-scale open water capture fisheries which was dominant in the 1970s has given way to close water culture fisheries, which is now playing an important role in the development of the subsector.

Two other notable structural changes are the growing share of marine fishing, from 11% in FY73 to 17% in FY14, and the increasing share of shrimps, from 3% to 6% over the same periods. Since much of the shrimp catch is exported with considerably higher prices than domestic consumption fisheries, commercial value of the export-oriented shrimp production is changing the role of fisheries sector in value-added and incomes. The main driving forces for growth of aquaculture are high intensive technological management and improved fish breeds based on private investment. With growing domestic demand and a large export market, there is considerable further scope for enlarging the contribution of fisheries in the development of Bangladesh.

Challange and Issues

Challanges in Agriculture Sectors

All the successes, described above, could be short lived over a longer period of time. After achieving lower middle income country status, the challenge is not achieving food security but to sustain food security over medium and long term. Bangladesh aspires to become an upper middle income country and then on to become a developed country by 2041. This time frame unfortunately also coincides with onset of sea level rise potentially inundating parts of Bangladesh. Can Bangladesh sustain food security at that time? If not, will that threaten its aspiration to become developed country? The main challenges to achieving and sustaining food security over the longer term include:

Urbanization
Sea Level Rise
Loss of agriculture land
water availability

Urbanization

Expanding urbanization threatens food security

Bangladesh experienced faster urbanization than South Asia as a whole between 2000 and 2010. Over that period, the share of its population living in officially classified urban settlements increased by 1.69% per year. World Urbanization Prospects estimated that urban population will be 56% of total population of Bangladesh by 2050. Bangladesh's expanding urban populations presents it with a considerable affordable housing challenge. In the best case scenario in which urban population density remains constant, meeting this challenge will require expanding the amount of developable urban land by just over 7,000 km2 or almost 45% - between 2010 and 2050 (World Bank, 2015). This will provide extreme stress on lands available for productive economic uses and threaten achieving food security.

Sea Level Rise

Climate change and natural hazards will likely continue to worsen

Bangladesh ranks first in the 2014 Climate Change Vulnerability Index and it will likely suffer more from climate change by 2025. than any other country (Maplecroft, 2014). Rainfall is expected to increase by 10% to 15% during the monsoon seasons by 2030 and 27% by 2075; rising sea level is expected to inundate 120,000 km2 by 2050; 14% more of the country may become extremely prone to floods by 2030; cyclones in the Bay of Bengal will occur more frequently due to increasing temperature, and the peak intensity of cyclones may increase by 5% to 10% (FPMU, 2013). Coastal salinity problems will likely worsen as changing rain patterns reduce the amount of dry season water supply from upstream river sources. Overall, crop production might be reduced by 30% by the end of the century, rice production could fall by 8%, and wheat production by 32% by 2050 (FPMU, 2013). Winter crop production would be seriously hampered due to a warmer and drier environment during non-monsoon seasons, while moisture stress might force farmers to reduce the area under irrigated rice cultivation.

Loss of agriculture land

Loss of agricultural land

Bangladesh is losing agriculture land at a rate of 0.5% per year due to various factors including urban encroachment of agriculture land, road infrastructure, water logging, depletion of groundwater and soil fertility, erosion, and salinity (Hasan, 2013). In the last three decades about 170,000 ha of agriculture land has been degraded by increased salinity (FAO, 2012). Soil fertility degradation results from imbalanced fertilizer use ( overuse of subsidized nitrogen fertilizers), absence of micronutrient application, less use of manure for crops and more for fuel, and cropping intensification combined with the increase of mono culture rice without rotation. River bank erosion accounts for about 40% of land loss on about 1,200 km of riverbanks (primarily the Ganges, Jamuna, and Padma Rivers) that are seriously affected as topsoil is washed away and replaced by sand (Hasan, 2013). This problem is expected to intensify with increased climate change-induced sea level rise. This significant land loss when combined with population growth explains why the size of cultivated area per farm has decreased from 0.81 to 0.51 ha between 1984 and 2008 (FPMU, 2013)..

water availability

Uncertainty in water availability from upstream

As Bangladesh is located in the low-lying delta of the Ganges- the Brahmaputra- the Meghna basin, upstream infrastructural developments both in India and possibly in China are expected to have a notable impact on the dry season flow in the country. Of particular interest for Bangladesh are the Indian proposals to construct 16 barrages on the Ganges River and the plans to divert water from the Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers towards the south of India. In addition, India is planning to construct the Tipaimukh dam in the northeastern part of the country. These will impact the water availability in Bangladesh as well as the ecological condition of the rivers. Fisheries and agriculture activities within Bangladesh are expected to be impacted by these developments.

Preferred & Available Stress Tolerant Varities

The following stress tolerant crop varities are developed by different agencies of Bangladesh and can be used to combat climate change.

Drought Tolerant

BRRI dhan43, BRRI dhan 55, BRRI dhan 56, BRRI dhan 57, BRRI dhan 66, BRRI dhan 71, & BRRI dhan 83, for drought region. Binadhan 20, BINA Moog 11.

Flood Tolerant

BRRI dhan 51, BRRI dhan 52, BRRI dhan 79, (can withstand 18-21 days of submergence); BINA dhan 11, BINA dhan 12, (20-25 days submerged tolerant), BRRI dhan 91, (medium low and where water level below 1 meter).

Saline Tolerant

BR23, BRRI dhan 41, BRRI dhan 54, BRRI dhan 73, BRRI dhan 78, BINA dhan 8, BINA dhan 10, (12 ds/m), BINA dhan 23 , varities, BARI Gom 25, BRRI dhan 97, BRRI dhan 47, BRRI dhan 99, (8-14 dS/m), BU Soybean 2, BARI Soybean 4, BARI Mung 6, BINA dhan 23, BINA Gom 1, Binachinabadam 6.

Diseases Tolerant

BINA dhan-25,(moderate YSB resistant); BRRI dhan 101,(Bacterial Leaf Blight resistant), Binamoog-7, Binamoog-8, Binamoog-9, Binamoog-10, Binamoog-11, (Yellow Mosaic Virus and Cercospora Leaf Spot Resistant); BARI Mung-4, BARI Mung-6, BARI Gom 30, BARI Gom 33,

Bio Fortified

Zinc enrichged crop varities: BRRI dhan 62, BRRI dhan 64, BRRI dhan 72, BRRI dhan 74, BRRI dhan 84, BRRI dhan 102, Bangabandhu dhan 100, BINA dhan-20,

Other Stress Tolerant

Stress tolerant other corp varities: BARI Gom 30, BARI Gom 31, (heat tolerant, leaf blight tolerant and rust-resistant); Binamoog-11, (drought and high temperature tolerant) .

Highlited Approach

In Ohirkunji village, Barlekha Upazila, Moulvibazar, Kunjolota Biswas, age 38, has become a successful farmer using the unique (sack gardens) method. This method can produce sufficient vegetables for herself, selling the rest for nominal profit. People living in the haor regions are compelled to receive a potential strategy such as sack farming to promote their living standards as the intensity of excessive rainfall causing flood has increased over the years, and climate-induced disaster has already impacted the livelihoods of the local community

Sack Garden

Networking Lead

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Stepha Kruse

Design Lead

Pumpkin Cultivations- sand bar cultivation

Homestead Vegetables

Zero tillage Black gram (mashkalai), Mustard, Garlic after flood

Pit system of Vegetable cultivation

Preferred varities BARI lalshak1, Indianspinach- Local Spincah, BARI Palongshak 1, Batisak, BARI Batisak 1, Okra-BARI dherosh 1. Trnip-Hybrid, Raddosh-BARI Mula 1, 2, Tomato-BARI tomoato-2,3, 14, 15; BARI morich 1, Brinjal- BARI Begun-4,5

Potential Impact and Adaptation Option

For Agriculture Sector

Potential Impact & Risk
Adaptation Intervention
Adaptation Measures

Potential Impact & Risk

Climate Signal and Hazards	Potential Impacts	Risk Level
Climate Signal and Hazards	Potential Impacts	SSP1-2.6	SSP5-8.5
Excessive Rainfall	Crop damage Cultivation becomes less suitable due to waterlogged condition Loss of cultivable lands Changed cropping pattern	++	+++
Extreme Heat	Crop yield change/reduction Pest infestation and diseases outbreak Change flowering pattern and phenological change	++	+++
Cold spell	Crop damage Phenological change Pest and diseases	+++	+++
Frequent River Flood	Crop damage Loss of livelihoods	+	++
Early or Frequent Flash Floods	• Boro crop damage Harvesting and storage problem Changed cropping pattern Seasonal migration Shifting occupation	++	+++
Severe Drought/Water Scarcity	• Irrigation water crisis Less yield Food crisis Pest and diseases	++	++
Frequent Lightening	Death of framers	++	++
Salinity Increase	• Crop damage of traditional varieties Low yield Less suitable irrigation water Cropping pattern change Limited scope of agriculture production Loss of livelihoods Internal displacement	++	+++
Frequent Cyclone and Storm Surge	• Crop damage Loss of livelihoods Human death Food and medicine crisis	+++	+++
Sea Level Rise	• Less availability of cultivable lands Low yield of crops Hampered food security	++	+++

Adaptation Intervention

Code	Interventions	Domain	NAP Strategy	Priority	Cost (Billion BDT)	Private Sector Investment Potential
CSA1	Extension of climate smart technologies for increasing irrigation water use efficiency	SWM \| SEE \| CHT \| FPE \| HFF \| DBA CBL \| NNW \| CHI \| URB	S1.1, S1.2, S1.3, S2.1, S2.2, S2.3	High	313	10%
CSA2	Augmentation of surface water for multipurpose use and irrigation	SWM \| SEE \| CHT \| FPE \| HFF \| DBA CBL \| NNW \| CHI \| URB	S2.1, S2.2, S2.4, S1.1, S1.2, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2	High	313	10%
CSA3	Extension of stress, pest and diseases tolerant rice and non-rice cropst	SWM \| SEE \| CHT \| FPE \| HFF \| DBA CBL \| NNW \| CHI	S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2	High	846	5%
CSA4	Introduction and up-scaling of innovative and indigenous agriculture	SWM \| SEE \| CHT \| FPE \| HFF \| DBA CBL \| NNW \| CHI \| URB	S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2	High	20	5%
CSA5	Crop diversification/intensification for natural resources optimization and reducing stresses of existing and potential climate stress based on climate sensitive crop zoning	SWM \| SEE \| CHT \| FPE \| HFF \| DBA CBL \| NNW \| CHI \| URB	S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4.	Moderate	15	20%
CSA6	Farm modernization/ mechanization to reduce climate vulnerability	SWM \| SEE \| CHT \| FPE \| HFF \| DBA CBL \| NNW \| CHI	S2.1, S2.3, S2.4, S1.3	Moderate	15	5%
CSA7	Increase fertilizer use efficiency for enhancing the production (fertilizer deep placement, organic amendment, green manuring, leaf color charts, soil test-based fertilizer application)	SWM \| SEE \| CHT \| FPE \| HFF \| DBA CBL \| NNW \| CHI	S2.1, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2	High	106	40%
CSA8	Extension of Good Agriculture Practices (GAP), Modern Agriculture Technology (MATH) and Sloping Agricultural Land Technology (SALT)	SWM \| SEE \| CHT \| FPE \| HFF \| DBA CBL \| NNW \| CHI	S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2, S4.3	High	103	10%
CSA9	Strengthening and development of impact based Early Warning System and Data Management for Agriculture	Nationwide	S2.1, S2.2, S2.3, S1.3	High	25	5%
CSA10	Improvement of storage or post-harvest facilities, transport, communication and e-commerce based market facilities for agricultural product	Nationwide	S2.1, S2.4, S1.3, S4.1, S4.2	High	145	20%
CSA11	Development of agro-food processing industries based on climate-sensitive crop zoning	Nationwide	S2.3, S1.3	High	52	40%
CSA12	Development of e-commerce and engagement of gender and youth for e-commerce based entrepreneurship	Nationwide	S2.1, S2.3, S1.3, S4.2	Moderate	11	20%

Adaptation Measures

WDM1: Management and timely maintenance of inside and outside of coastal polders, sea dykes, embankments and cyclone shelters in an integrated and gender sensitive way considering the sea level rise and extreme storm surge height
Repair, construct and rehabilitate coastal polders, sea dykes, embankments, and cyclone shelters considering the sea level rise and extreme storm surge height under varying climate change scenarios Regular and timely O&M of coastal polders/ flood embankments Inside polder management through innovative WRM such as Tidal River Management (TRM) Development of storm surge model and impact-based operational early warning and community-based dissemination system for cyclonic storm surge and facilitating emergency response Regular and periodic M&E system development for polder/embankment management Financial protection of critical coastal infrastructures through risk transfer or insurance mechanism Gender-responsive and youth volunteered effective evacuation mechanism during disaster following updated Standing Order on Disaster (2019) Climate-resilient (flood, storm surge, wind tolerant) housing development for coastal poor and vulnerable communities Introduce ‘ limate Resilience llo ance or Fund’ or people in t e most vulnerable areas Integrated climate and disaster risk reduction project Awareness raising and behavioral change program for accessing cyclone or disaster shelters Dighi, pond, reservoir, construction in coastal areas and drought-prone areas

WDM1: Management and timely maintenance of inside and outside of coastal polders, sea dykes, embankments and cyclone shelters in an integrated and gender sensitive way considering the sea level rise and extreme storm surge height