« In extreme dryness, just one spark is enough to ignite a forest fire. The Climate
Scenarios help me to make more accurate assessments of the risk of forest fires as a result of climate
In the long term, average amounts of precipitation in the summer months will shrink, and evaporation will increase. The ground will become drier, there will be fewer rainy days and the longest precipitation-free period will last longer.
|Summer precipitation||Longest dry period in summer||Summer temperature|
|Possible around mid-century||-30% t0 +5%||320 t0 340||-25% t0 +10%|
|Possible by the end of the century||-25% t0 +10%||340 t0 365||20% t0 +40%|
A noticeable reduction in precipitation during the summer months is expected in the future. Although we are still experiencing a similar amount of rainfall on an average rainy day in summer as in the past, there are now more days without rain. The longest dry period in summer may last about a week longer on average by the middle of the century.
The future climate projection based on downscaled multi-model ensemble for Bangladesh indicates warming of 0.44 to 0.69°C in near term (2030s) and 1.3 to 2°C in mid-term (2050s) for the SSP1- 2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios covering the potential range of future temperature rise. The regional distribution portrays comparatively higher temperatures in south west, south central and south eastern regions while northeast region experiences highest amount of rise. Interestingly, the near term, SSP1-2.6 has slightly higher temperature rise than SSP5-8.5 all over Bangladesh, that changes in mid-term with higher amounts of warming for SSP5-8.5.